Another*s

12.19 评论：
上周回顾：
股市继续震荡盘整。

利好因素：
（过去提及的）
市场估值回到历史低位，伴随企业良好的业绩增长。
保险、社保、汇金等特殊身份的主流资金进场。
经济数据优于预期，有利于排除对“二次探底”的担忧，提高了中国顺利实现“软着陆”的信心。
国家将重点发展以下七大战略性新兴产业：节能环保、新一代信息技术、生物、高端装备制造产业、新能源、新材料、新能源汽车产业。
（新增）
暂无

利空因素：
（过去提及的）
中国经济增长的确定放缓。
中国房市泡沫的隐忧，以及相应的地产调控政策的从紧。
通胀压力的不断攀升和货币政策从紧预期的不断升温。
（新增）
暂无

结论：
短期看点：无。
中期看点：我国经济仍处于短期增速下滑、长期处于转型期的大环境中。

如预期，股市延续震荡调整。从技术面上看，指数日K线出现四连阴，很多人视为不利现象，但反问一句，如果主力要出货，怎么会把K线做得这么难看？在庄家当道、散户为主的中国股市生存，总是要需要些逆向思考。回想今年国庆大涨前的六连阴，就是最好的例证。

不少人对“通胀”很担忧，对“加息”很担忧，但我们要明白现在处于这个周期的哪个阶段。股市向来在加息周期的初期都表现得很好。特别是近期我们的党报“人民日报”频频撰文力挺股市，侧面透露出国家近期并不想打压股市。炒股要听党的话，这是中国股市的一句“金玉良言”。

当前我国面临的经济形势比较复杂，一方面通过积极的财政政策保增长，调结构，另一方面又通过稳定的货币政策防通胀，调总量。过去说过，这样的政策也决定了这轮的牛市不是普涨式的快牛市，而是分化式的慢牛市。盯着指数，特别是沪指，对股市赚钱越来越没有指导意义。其实这样的趋势在2010年已经很明显，相信会在2011年延续。看指数炒股的老套路，正在被市场所抛弃，未来市场的制胜法宝是：精心选股、风险管理、保持耐心、严守纪律。

消息面上有一条消息值得关注：“国务院国资委国有重点大型企业监事会主席季晓南透露，截至今年7月30日，中央企业主营业务资产整体上市的已有24家，预计今明两年，100家上市央企中将有40家企业整体实现上市。”这条消息对那些大股东为央企，有重组预期的个股来说，是个利好。

维持积极乐观的判断，预测调整在12月中下旬结束。守护好手中的优质筹码，做优质股的潜伏者，做大趋势的服从者。

深成指的短期阻力位：13290，13937  短期支撑位：12638，11441
沪成指的短期阻力位：2914，3000  短期支撑位：2792，2700

本周关注股票：
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To understand more of 2010, see these photos:

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12.12 评论：
上周回顾：
股市继续进行震荡盘整。

利好因素：
（过去提及的）
市场估值回到历史低位，伴随企业良好的业绩增长。
保险、社保、汇金等特殊身份的主流资金进场。
经济数据优于预期，有利于排除对“二次探底”的担忧，

Employment Report: 345K Jobs Lost, 9.4% Unemployment Rate by Calculated Risk, but better than expected

Jobs and the Unemployment Rate by Calculated Risk, which job losses pattern will be for this recession? more like the 1990 and 2001's

The Economist's house-price indicators by Economist, lower prices tempt buyers back into the most depressed markets, is it time to bargain hunting?

Weekly Scoreboard by Between the Hedges

Weekend Update by Tony Caldaro

Monetary Policy is Loose — The Yield Curve is Steep by Apleph Blog, unusual situations beget more unusual situations, be careful

石评大财经2009年06月04日 by YouTube, talks about the relationship between China and US

Some before:

Julian Robertson's Steepener Swap Play (Shorting US Treasuries)

Is Your Portfolio Ready for Hyperinflation?

Paul Tudor Jones II

Michael Panzner doesn't think the hard times are over

The Fall of the Mall

Eight Notes on the Actions of the US Government on the Economy

Supply, demand, and the price of oil

The Economist food-price index: Creeping up

Some Cautionary Thoughts about Wind

How I'm Investing Now

GM Bondholders watching Chrysler Bankruptcy by Calculated Risk, GM will likely file for bankruptcy by next Monday?

Eddie Lampert Heads Into Memorial Day A Happy Man by Bespoke, super star - Sears

Weekly Scoreboard* by Between the Hedges

Weekend update by Tony Caldaro

The Reflation Trade Portfolio by IndexUniverse, an interesting portfolio to keep in your radar

Yale’s Swensen Recommends TIPS to Hedge ‘Substantial Inflation’  by Bloomberg, David Swensen again, so listen to him

The ‘38th Parallel by The Big Picture

Five Questions to Ask Yourself Before Any Trade by Minyanville, which is one of my favorite site, talks about the art of money management

Number-crunchers needed by The Economist, check where accountants are most in demand, leave US, and go to Asia and LatAm

Surviving Uncertainty: A Few Tips by Lane Wallace, the only thing we have to fear is fear itself

Vitamin D 'key to healthy brain' by BBC, enjoy the sun

Indian markets surge on Congress victory by FT, India’s benchmark stock index surged 17 per cent on Monday

Fed: Delinquency Rates Surged in Q1 2009 by Calculated Risk, more evidence of severe credit problems at the commercial banks

Report: Goldman, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan to Repay TARP by Calculated Risk, this news will boost the financial stocks

Three Month Dollar LIBOR Falls to 79 basis points by Calculated Risk, big improvement from the credit market these days

Blinder worried about a repeat of 1936 by Calculated Risk, concerns of a double dip recession

Oil Seasonality by Bespoke, the price of crude oil has typically peaked in mid to late September

Warren Buffett's Stock Holdings Outperform by Bespoke, Buffett's stock holdings have outperformed the S&P 500 this quarter by nearly 1,000 basis points

Now vs. 1938 by Bespoke, if the S&P 500 were to have a similar rally off of its lows today, it would top out at 1,018.

Dollar: Cautiously Bearish by Kathy Lien, the COT report is usually a good leading indicator of extremes or tops and bottoms in the currency market

Weekly Scoreboard by Between the Hedges

Weekend Update by Tony Caldaro

When Did Your County's Jobs Disappear? by Chris Wilson, an interactive map of vanishing employment across the country

Record Credit Card Defaults in April by Calculated Risk 

Credit Default Index Breaks Support As Market Fails At Resistance by Bespoke, will the S&P follow the CDS Index to break out the resistance

S&P 500 Financial Sector At Key Inflection Point by Bespoke 

Yet Another Housing Headwind by ValuePlays, another wave of inventories set to hit the market from people wanting to sell their home

Seven Things Consumers Are (Still) Doing by Real Time Economics

10 Things You Need to Know About Coffee by LiveScience, interesting about coffee, both good and bad

石评大财经2009年05月14日 by YouTube, great talks on the "New Channel"

Relative Strength: Sector Rotation in Motion by Bespoke, see how the sectors rotates in this rally

Health Care Sector Long Term Cumulative A/D Line by Bespoke, an opportunity to buy health care stocks?

The Almighty Renminbi? by Nouriel Roubini, Yuan: the new reserve currency in the future?

An Interview with Charlie Munger by Calculated Risk, Mr. Munger's comments on the accounting and derivatives

Berkshire Hathaway's Holdings by Value Expectations, take a look at what companies Buffect holds

The Impact of Changes in the Saving Rate on PCE by Calculated Risk, with a rising saving rate suppressing PCE, the recovery should be sluggish

To Be A Ford Dealer by Bespoke, about odds for the Big 3 US automakers bankrucptcy

Oil and Stocks Trading Together by Bespoke, notice the correlation between the daily percent change of oil and the S&P 500 on a 50-day rolling basis increased

Breaking Out Recent Commodities Moves by VIX and More

Commodity ETF investors move significantly into natural gas by FT Alphaville, people are buying the natty

Don't by The New Yorker, intelligence is really important, but it’s still not as important as self-control, wait, for the greater reward!